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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.